Vermeulens’ Market Reports are based on actual bid prices in the Institutional-Commercial-Industrial Construction Industry. Forecasts are based on leading indicators and historical comparative analysis.
Construction Prices: Remain flat through Q4 of 2020; one in ten projects showing cost reductions with strong contractor coverage across the board
Fed Watch: The Federal Reserve continued monetary stimulus in line with the “new normal”
Architectural Billings: Q4 has returned to growth in inquiries; however, three-quarters of billing declines in 2020 will result in a lower volume for the first half of 2021
Construction Dollar Volume: Continued its steady rise back to Q1 levels, led by residential construction volume which has fully recovered
Construction Job Growth: Approximately 152,000 construction jobs were added in Q4, or 2.0%; construction employment is still down 3.0% since its Q1 highs
New York Stock Exchange: The stock market grew by 14.4% in Q4, and has completely recovered reaching new highs in Q4; overall the NYSE is up 3.73% in 2020
Growth in Employment: Monthly average job growth through Q4 was 0.28M; recovery continues at a slow pace, indicated by the 6-month rolling average which is now at +0.8M
Gross Domestic Product: Initial GDP projections point to an annualized growth rate of 3.95% for Q4 2020; after a strong recovery in Q3 GDP growth trending back to sustainable levels
Commodities: Covid 19 projections, a declining USD, residential construction spikes, and natural disasters have created short term price spikes in both PVC (30%) and lumber (100%); steel continues to climb in particular for non-standard shapes
Consumer Price Index: After fully recovering in Q3, CPI rose 0.6% in Q4 and is +1.29% year over year (December 19/ December 20)
Market Outlook Quarterly - Q4 - 2020Previously Published Market Outlook Quarterly Reports
Market Outlook Quarterly - Q3 - 2020
Market Outlook Quarterly - Q4 - 2019
Market Outlook Quarterly - Q3 - 2019
Market Outlook Quarterly - Q2 - 2019