Vermeulens market reports are based on actual bid prices in the Institutional-Commercial-Industrial construction industry. Forecasts are based on leading indicators and historical comparative analysis.
Construction Prices: Flat through Q2 and Q3 of 2020; one in ten projects showing cost reductions with strong contractor coverage across the board
Fed Watch: The Federal Reserve continued monetary stimulus in line with the “new normal”
Architectural Billings: Continued to decline through Q3, while providing encouraging signs for recovery near the end of 2020; both August and September have shown a net increase in inquiries
Construction Dollar Volume: Continued its steady rise back to Q1 levels, led by residential construction volume which has fully recovered
Construction Job Growth: Approximately 122,000 construction jobs were added this quarter or 1.7%; construction employment is still down 5.2% since its Q1 highs
New York Stock Exchange: The stock market grew by 6.8% in Q3; the NYSE is still approximately 9% off its Q1 highs but has recovered back to 2019 levels
Growth in Employment: Monthly average job growth through Q3 was 1.3M; recovery continues at a slow pace, indicated by the 6-month rolling average which is now at -1.5M
Gross Domestic Product: Initial GDP projections point to an annualized growth rate of 20.3% for Q3 2020; this is a sharp reversal of the 37.9% drop in Q2
Commodities: Covid 19 projections, residential construction spikes, and natural disasters have created short term price spikes in both PVC (30%) and lumber (100%)
Consumer Price Index: Q3 CPI has recovered and is at +1.32% year over year (September 19/September 20)
Market Outlook Quarterly - Q3 - 2020Previously Published Market Outlook Quarterly Reports
Market Outlook Quarterly - Q4 - 2019
Market Outlook Quarterly - Q3 - 2019